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Archived stories from Jan 2007

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Forecaster predicts lots of weather for 2007

The US National Institute of Climate Estimatology (NICE) has produced its latest forecast for the 2007 Hurricane Season. The Institute has been producing hurricane forecasts for years and has yet to come close to reality. Unlike other hurricane forecasters, the Institute relies heavily on educated guesswork and looking out of the window.

In recent years, the Institute has managed to get its forecasts spectacularly wrong, culminating in its 2005 forecast, when it categorically stated that there would be no Category Five hurricanes, or indeed, any hurricanes, or tropical storms, or even breezy days.

Forecaster: 50% chance
of active/inactive
hurricane season

"We accept that our 2005 forecast was a little off," says Ava Punt, guesswork director at the Institute. "But we were put off by El Nino, global warming, and the fact it was a really lovely day when we looked out and did our forecasts." Ms Punt pointed out that the NICE 2006 forecast was spot on, unlike all the other forecasters' predictions. " We forgot to do our forecasting calculations, so we just put out the same report as in 2005 - much like the competition." Sure enough, 2006 saw no major hurricanes.

So what does the Institute forecast for 2007? More of the same, less of the same, or the same amount of the same? "We believe there is a 50% chance of a very active hurricane season, as in 2005, but equally we think there is a 50% chance of a very inactive hurricane season, as in 2006. We also think there is a 50% chance that it will be somewhere in the middle, a sort of actively inactive hurricane season," says Punt. "What we can say is that there will be an awful lot of weather this year, one way or another."

Sir Norbert "Nobby" Johnson, chief executive of Mocha Re, welcomed the news. "We got murdered in 2005, and thanks to all those forecaster chappies, we thought we were due another drubbing. But fortunately they got it completely wrong, and we cashed in with higher rates. And I got another Bentley."

Sir Nobbly continued: "The NICE forecast of either an active or an inactive hurricane season means we can tell our cedants that rates will have to increase, whereas we can tell our shareholders not to worry about losses. I'm hoping for a Maserati this year, or one of those hybrid Hummers..." Cont. p2005/06


Other news from Jan 2007
Travelating the Wave of Insurability
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